Patience, Discipline and an Edge?

Above all else you need to be disciplined, without discipline you cannot take control of your betting. If you want to 'grow' your Betting Bank and make long term profits, then you must be disciplined. You must also learn to be patient. Patience will serve you best when things are not quite going according to plan. If you are not applying yourself to these aspects, then you will just be another 'Bookies Benefactor'. It is necessary to state the obvious here, rather than to assume that we are all 'singing from the same psalm sheet' - to make money gambling you need to be placing bets where you have an edge, 'Race Reading' or 'Form' alone is not enough! There are far too many variables in any one race to factor in selecting from just newspaper or media information. The variables listed below highlight how difficult it actually is to pick a winner based on form alone:

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First and foremost there are the grades of a race to take on board, starting at the topmost the Classics, next is Class 1 or Conditions Races, Pattern races and Listed races, then Classes 2 down to 7. Some (not all) of the multitude of variables to factor in, are listed below, you could probably add a good few more yourself but we think we have mentioned a sufficient number for the purpose of  this explaining this enigma:

Race Variables (When considering the possible outcome of a race)

By no means are all the variables mentioned above and serves only to highlight the depth and complexity of such a task when you actually start to consider the many factors that contribute to 'picking a winner', it's a wonder any winners can be 'picked', which is why you always lose so often. With the volume of variables there are, the percentage is even more in the bookmakers favour. It comes as no surprise that the 'Napsters/Pundits' fail to achieve a decent or high 'strike rate' and good 'level stakes' profits - almost 90%+ fail to achieve a profit. For you the punter, where else other than the Racing Post and the table of Napsters do you do research for your selection? An advisory service will give you an edge and is a serious option, not to be confused with a tipping service. Find one and stick with it and your success, inevitably will be determined by whether you can change your betting habits to those of a professional punter, that will enhance your chances of being successful - remember patience and discipline.

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Here is an typical example highlighting a bookies dream race (and a punting nightmare), a Handicap Chase at Taunton in 2017, where none of the eight participants had run over the race distance of 2m 2f  before - the actual Race Overview read:

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"This looks tricky but we’re inclined to take a chance on DREAM BOLT with James Bowen taking off a valuable 5lb. He won twice in the summer, stays further and wasn’t disgraced on his reappearance at Newbury. Notarfbad and Workbench are both recent winners but are 6lb and 7lb higher respectively. Coeur Tantre has been raised a pound since his second at Wincanton but that was his first run over fences so there should be more to come. Blandfords Gunner was second in first-time cheekpieces at Doncaster and has place claims if the headgear works a second time.".....

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With information like that to go on, you may well do better by sticking a pin in the racecard! With so many variables to factor in and so many 'ifs' and 'unknowns' based on this particular race review, how would you ever come to a decisive conclusion sufficient enough to part with your hard earned cash! The answer is you can't and you should leave well alone. It's hard enough when the form book is standing up and there's no weight or age differential let alone a few curved ones thrown in. But unfortunately, this type of race review (or very similar) is quite common and pretty much an every race-day occurrence, which to a greater degree makes a mockery of the form book. For the bookmakers it's heaven, more confusion the better but for punters it's a nightmare race. Horses penalised for recent wins with weight increases, dropping or upping in grade, changing distances, having wind ops, being gelded etc., all these 'factors' make it very difficult to predict/forecast the likely outcome of a race on form alone (and let's not forget this also applies to the so called Experts/Napsters as well - just check out their Naps tables - awful stats, and they get paid for it!), which is why you need more that just a strong cup of coffee and three or four hours of study of your Racing Post - you need to be in the know! We've outlined above how difficult it is to 'pick' winners, don't let 'The Greed Factor', get the better of you, build your Betting Bank up slowly and carefully, bet in the right races and the right meetings with information of substance and this will prove successful over time. 

Please gamble responsibly and exercise control over your gambling activity so as to not let it negatively impact other areas of your life. The Inner Circle Club cannot be held responsible for any losses incurred from the use of information contained in this email or site.